農村戶籍：一個不低的數字

       I have three plausible explanations, and most likely it is a combination of all three, although in economic logic things do not add up. The first reason is that Beijing did not know that the incomes of poor peasants and low-level workers have been sharply rising since 2000, at rates which in my view are unmatched in history. However, workers earning less than RMB 1,600 per month do not have to report tax, and floating workers simply do not report, so their incomes are difficult to assess. More important is the fact that registered population in the villages remains large, although many people have floated away. If one divides the observed total income of peasant households with the registered population, an artificially low per-capita income is obtained.

　　我有三個可能的解釋，最可能是三者的合并，雖然經濟邏輯加不起來。其一是北京不知道自二○○○年開始，中國的貧苦農民的收入出現了史無前例的迅速增長。不容易知道。月入人民幣一千六百以下的不用報稅，流動的勞工一般不報，這些人的收入不易估計。更重要是農村的戶籍人口依然多，雖然不少流動去了。如果以農戶的總收入除以戶籍人口，一個不實的低數字會出現。